As the holiday season approaches, movie theaters are shifting into high gear with the simultaneous release of two highly anticipated films: Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II.” This weekend promises to be an exciting one for both casual moviegoers and die-hard fans alike, with projections suggesting that these two films will rake in over $200 million in ticket sales combined. According to industry analyst Shawn Robbins, this dynamic duo provides a much-needed counter-programming opportunity, enabling audiences to experience diverse cinematic offerings in a singular outing. With the fall box office remaining an unpredictable landscape, the expected success of these films could mark the beginning of a robust holiday movie season, especially with “Moana 2” set to join the fray the following week.
“Wicked,” an adaptation of the popular Broadway musical, has already demonstrated its drawing power by exceeding initial forecasts. The film managed to accumulate a staggering $19.2 million from advance screenings throughout the week. Amazon Prime members contributed $2.5 million from a limited run in 750 theaters, and Wednesday showings added another $5.7 million across 2,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada. Notably, “Wicked” exceeded expectations by grossing an impressive $11 million during Thursday preview screenings at about 3,300 theaters, setting the stage for its opening weekend potential.
Estimates for “Wicked” had initially hovered around $80 million but have now ballooned to between $120 million and $140 million, with some optimistic projections even suggesting a higher debut. This marks a significant moment for Hollywood, particularly in light of the recent struggles to capitalize on musicals, with past adaptations failing to connect with audiences effectively. The anticipation surrounding “Wicked” is further underscored by its 92% rating on Rotten Tomatoes from over 160 critics, as well as a remarkable 99% with moviegoers who rated it favorably on the site’s “popcornmeter.” If projections hold true, “Wicked” is poised to set a new record as the highest-opening Broadway adaptation in cinematic history, surpassing Disney’s “Into the Woods,” which opened to $31 million back in 2014.
On the other hand, “Gladiator II” enters the fray 24 years after the release of its predecessor, carrying with it a legacy that few films can claim. With an initial showing that generated $6.5 million during Thursday previews alone, expectations suggest that it could garner between $60 million and $80 million over the weekend. Critics appear to welcome the sequel, as evidenced by its 73% “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes stemming from more than 200 reviews. For context, the original “Gladiator” opened at $34.8 million, thus the sequel is starting with a solid trajectory.
Industry analysts like Paul Dergarabedian have likened the current cinematic climate to the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, where dual film releases manage to capture public interest and generate cultural discourse. While “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” may not reach the exceptional levels of excitement seen earlier this year, their release strategy and the positive critical reception have certainly created a buzz, highlighting the possibility of substantial box office performance into the holiday season.
With the combined ticket sales from “Wicked,” “Gladiator II,” and other films still attracting audiences, analysts are projecting total weekend sales to range between $200 million and $250 million. While this is indeed a remarkable sum, it falls short of making it into the top 20 highest-grossing weekends in box office history, with the memorable “Barbenheimer” weekend in July 2023 standing at a staggering $311 million.
Robbins highlights that the immediate weekend figures are just part of the larger picture, noting that these films possess the potential for long-term success if their initial reception prompts positive word-of-mouth. The upcoming weekend’s performance will also contribute significantly to the overall annual box office, which is currently trailing 11% behind last year’s figures.
As audiences flock to theaters this holiday weekend, cinema chains are gearing up to enhance the moviegoing experience. Greg Marcus, CEO of Marcus Corporation, emphasizes the importance of providing a seamless and enjoyable experience for all attendees. Various chains are rolling out themed merchandise, special promotional items, and exclusive food and beverage offerings to entice viewers. From “Gladiator II” themed popcorn buckets to “Wicked” inspired snacks, theater chains are focusing on creating a festive environment that celebrates the art of filmmaking.
With such promising offerings and exceptional titles, the stage is set for a remarkable weekend at the box office, paving the way for a captivating end to the year. This collaborative clash of cinematic themes could invigorate the industry and reignite audiences’ passion for going to the movies, reminding everyone of the collective joy found within shared storytelling experiences.